Trey Lance famously threw 0 interceptions over the course of a full year in the 2019 FCS season and that’s when he really started to gain hype. North Dakota State played just one game in 2020 and that game was only because they wanted one more chance for Lance to show his talent. He has a unique combination of accuracy, arm talent, and mobility and while there is plenty of risk involved the upside is more than worth a high selection. 

Strengths: 

  • Extremely Mobile

Trey Lance is a phenomenal runner. He has mobility to not only escape the pocket but also to be a threat in the running game. He has sudden movements when running but also good strength to shake off tacklers and he will definitely bring a second dimension to his game.

  • Incredible Arm Strength

Trey Lance has an incredibly strong arm that allows him to make every throw. He isn’t known for making crazy off platform throws but he has the arm strength to do so, and his arm strength also allows him to fire balls into tight windows.

  • Accuracy to All Parts of the Field

You don’t throw 0 interceptions with a full body of work without some insane accuracy and Lance certainly has that. He does a great job hitting his targets in the short, intermediate, and deep areas of the field.

  • Great Poise

Lance has great pocket presence and phenomenal poise. Even though he wasn’t pressured often when he was he knew how to slide away from pressure and make a throw, and he also knows when to bail from the pocket and use his mobility.

  • Leads His Receivers Well

He does a great job not only throwing accurate passes but also leading his receivers. He has the pin point accuracy to throw in the right spot to lead his receivers to yards after the catch.

  • Phenomenal Decision Making

Again throwing 0 interceptions is no small feat and it doesn’t happen without the ability to read defenders and make consistently good decisions to keep the ball safe. 

Weaknesses: 

  • Inexperienced

Lance has just one year of college play and that play was unfortunately in the FCS division, where he wasn’t getting a great body of work. The teams he played were lackluster and there is going to be a steep learning curve for him in the NFL.

  • Doesn’t Take Enough Shots

Trey Lance is incredibly safe and smart with the football but sometimes that can be at the expense of big plays down field. He doesn’t fire balls into tight windows for throws he is capable of making with his arm strength and sometimes he doesn’t push it deep enough. He needs to be taught that it’s ok to take risks once in a while especially if the payoff is large.

Player Comp: It’s tough to find a player comparison for Lance because of the great combination of arm strength, mobility, and accuracy but I think Deshaun Watson is the closest  can get. Similarly Watson has a phenomenal arm that can fire accurately to all parts of the field, and he also is a great runner who can scramble but also get yards with his feet. He’s also very poised and makes strong decisions. Although he doesn’t have the experience issues Lance does, at his ceiling Lance can be a Watson type of player.

Final Thoughts: Trey Lance is going to come in as my QB4 but it wouldn’t shock me if he’s the best QB in the class. In the right situation I think I’d be willing to say that Lance perhaps has the greatest upside out of all the QBs in the class. His combination of traits is incredibly rare and if his field processing and pocket presence holds up in the NFL he’s going to be a phenomenal player. There’s too much risk involved for me to put him higher but he’s still my 4th best overall as well which puts me just around general consensus. I love the team fit on the Falcons because he will be able to develop a couple years behind Matt Ryan before taking over a play action style offense that could use his mobility.